The pre-GERD Nile flow now barely supplies 97% of Egypt's present water needs with only 660 cubic meters per person, one of the world's lowest annual per capita water shares. This down-river decrease of Nile fresh water will produce grave conditions. The large reservoir behind the dam is to be filled over a three- to five-year or longer period, during which it is expected that the amount of Nile flow to the Sudan and Egypt and its delta will be substantially reduced. There is an additional looming danger of considerable importance: Ethiopia, itself energy-poor and undergoing drought conditions, is shortly (in 2017) to complete construction of the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa, its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
At present rates, saline intrusion is now reaching agricultural terrains in central delta sectors-the coastal 20 to 40 km of delta surface will be underwater by the end of this century. Delta lowering and sea-level rise thus accounts for submergence of about 1 cm per year. While the coastal delta margin is being lowered, sea level is also rising at a rate of about 3 mm per year.
The northern third of the delta is lowering at the rate of about 4 to 8 mm per year due to compaction of strata underlying the plain, seismic motion, and the lack of sufficient new sediment to re-nourish the delta margin being eroded by Mediterranean coastal currents. The low-lying delta plain is only about 1 m above present sea level. Less than 10% of Nile water now reaches the sea, and most of the nutrient-rich sediment is trapped in the delta by a dense canal and irrigation system. Due to much-intensified human impact, the delta no longer functions as a naturally expanding fluvial-coastal center. These two areas comprise only about 3.5% of Egypt's total area, the remainder being mostly sandy desert. Emplacement in Egypt of barrages in the 1800s, construction the Aswan Low Dam in 1902, and the Aswan High Dam in 1965 has since altered water flow and distribution of nourishing organic-rich soil in the delta.Įgypt's population has recently swelled rapidly to about 90 million, with most living in the soil-rich Lower Nile Valley and Delta. Over the past 200 years, rapidly increasing human activity has seriously altered flow conditions of the Nile.
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